This blog was written by Irish Life staff based on content produced by Irish Life's investment managers (ILIM). 

The "main event" of Q4 2024 was of course the US Presidential Election, with Donald Trump securing re-election and the Republicans winning control of all three houses of government. 

Key takeaways from Q4 2024

Global equities reached record highs in Q4 2024, driven by optimism over policy changes from the incoming Trump administration. However, markets dipped towards the end of the quarter as the Federal Reserve signalled fewer rate cuts for 2025.

US economic performance

Overall, the US economy showed some strength. Trump’s re-election and a Republican congressional majority boosted expectations of tax cuts and deregulation.

• Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 3.1%, up from Q2. 
• November added 227,000 jobs, with unemployment kept at 4.2%.
• Consumer prices climbed with core inflation at 3.3%.

Eurozone challenges

The Eurozone faced some mixed signals in the last quarter of 2024 with political turbulence across the continent.  Government collapses in both Germany and France saw uncertainty echo across Europe.

• GDP increased by 1.7%, supported largely by household consumption and fixed investment.
• German manufacturing lagged in Q4, which dragged down the broader region.
• Core inflation was at 2.7%.

Click here for the full report (PDF).

Investment outlook 2025: the divergence dilemma

Trump’s comeback and the policies his administration ultimately implements will set the tone for the year ahead.

ILIM's base case is one of healthy global growth in 2025, with their central thesis assuming less severe tariffs and immigration initiatives than proposed during the election campaign. Policies under the Trump administration could act as a catalyst for continued strength in the US economy relative to the rest of the world, especially Europe and China.

However, until there is more clarity, the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop under a Trump-led America leaves markets susceptible to increased volatility for the year ahead.

Click here for the full report.